WNBA 2026 Round One Picks

We break down the 2026 WNBA playoff schedule and why the best-of-three first round makes every possession feel like a coin flip. I run through the current bracket, highlight the key player matchups, and lock in my Round 1 predictions with a quick look at what Round 2 could become.
• The 2026 WNBA playoff format from best of three to best of seven
• The current seeding and how the bracket advances
• Lynx vs Liberty as a Finals level Round 1 series and why perimeter defense matters
• Valkyries vs Wings as defense vs shot making plus the Gabby Williams vs Paige Bueckers spotlight
• Aces vs Fever built around A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Mitchell with Chelsea Gray vs Caitlin Clark as the chess match
• Dream vs Mystics as an inconsistent matchup where Jordan Canada’s experience and the Austin vs Reese battle swing outcomes
• My picks to advance and what the second round could look like

Please make sure that you like, subscribe, comment, tell anyone who's anyone one about the WNBA and this playoffs coming up September 27th, and two about my show.

Transcript

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Welcome And What We Cover

SPEAKER_00 0:00

What's up everybody? It's your favorite show. It's favorite show get a bucket. I'm your host, Trey and as usual. Hope you're all having a wonderful, wonderful day. Today we're going to talk about the WNBA 2026 playoff schedule and my predictions for round one. But before we do that, please make sure to hit that like and subscribe button, comment, tell anyone who's going to want about the show. Trying to get the ratings up a little bit, you know, just a little bit. And if you're wondering where you heard this before, that's because you've been listening with me Monday through Friday at 11 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. And I greatly appreciate your support. Now, the WNBA playoffs.

A Quick Salute To Nneka

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First and foremost, before we say that, ladies and gentlemen, NECA Gumake just retired. I'm not gonna make this episode about her. I'm just gonna say before we start off into it, NECA, I appreciate everything you did from the organization, the Sparks. It sucks that we had to see you go the way we did. You know, we lost. It's cool, though. I appreciate you. Love you, baby. We'll talk about you another time, another day.

Playoff Format And Current Seeds

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And I hate the fact that my sparks could not be in the playoff hunt. But, ladies and gentlemen, the playoffs do start September 27th, at least first round. And the first round starts with the best of three. And then after that, we go to the semifinals, which guess what? That's the best of five. And then after that, the finals is a best of seven. Now I can't wait for the day where you know all rounds are a best of seven. But until that time, we're gonna go off with that format. Now, the current playoffs seedings are as follows Lynx versus Liberty, that's one verse eight. Valkyries vs. Wings, that's two versus seven. Aces vs fever, that's three verse six. And Dream vs Mystics, that's four versus five. So y'all understand how the playoffs go, okay? The winner of one and eight would play the winner of four and five. And the winner of two and seven would play the winner of three and six. That's just how life goes, ladies and gentlemen. Alright, so with that being said, let's kick it off with one vs eight.

Lynx vs Liberty Prediction

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Lynx vs Liberty, ladies and gentlemen. We got a good one, okay? This one could be my most controversial. We got Stewie versus Nafisa Collier. In the playoffs specifically, Stewie has a six and two or six and three record against Nafisa Collier. Okay. Now, to be clear, in the playoffs, Nafisa Collier has been the better player. She scored more points, more rebounds. They have the same assist. Defensively is where she kind of separates herself, right? We got here 1.9 steals and 2.6 blocks for Nafisa Collier compared to 1.7 steals, 1.3 blocks to Stewie. Now, again, both around 20 points per game, nine rebounds, four assists. Very similar. But the efficiency leans Nafisa Collier. And when I'm looking at this squad, yeah, Stewie is gonna need to do a lot, right? Like on the matchups, we got Nafisa Collier versus Brianna Stewart off top. We got Olivia Miles versus Sabrina Ionescu. We got Natasha Howard versus John Quell Jones, Courtney McBride versus Pauline Assier, and Kayla McBride versus Leone Phoebe. Now my focus for this round for this specific matchup, ladies and gentlemen, is gonna be as follows, okay? Now this is the 2024 Finals, WNBA Finals rematch, where the Liberty won 3-2. And that was the last season, that was the last year where the finals only went five games. Because now we're at seven, like I told you. The New York Liberty. Yeah, they won 2-1 this regular season against the Lynx. Now, again, I'm those are two things that I'm paying attention to, right? Because this was the finals rematch, or there's a chip on their shoulder for the Lynx. But could this also mean that the Liberty have their number? Now, again, I told you all Feeber Stewie, right? So three points right now are favoring the Liberty over the Lynx. I also got to look at Leone Phoebe and Stewie. Is that enough defensively, at least along the perimeter? Yeah, we got John Cuel Jones in the mix too. But this this Lynx team is kind of perimeter-oriented. They can hit you from the mid-range too. They can get you at the post as well. But again, they got a bunch of versatile players on this team. They got a lot of skilled players on this team who can defend too, by the way. Now, I told you, Leone Phoebus and Stewie, is that enough defense on the perimeter? Because I'm curious about how the Lynx guards are gonna play. Could they play too well? Could they be too much against the guards for the Liberty, right? Can the Liberty Guards guard Olivia Miles, Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride? Can they? I don't know. Like if we call if we're talking about the matchups, I can see Olivia Miles getting the better of Sabrina Ionescu. I can see Courtney McBride getting the better of Pauline Astier. Kayla McBride may struggle against Leone Viebish, but again, wherever Leone goes, that person's gonna have a long game. The other two are gonna have to snap. And Courtney McBride and Kayla, I mean I'm sorry, Courtney Williams and Caleb McBride definitely have been able to snap before. We saw Caleb McBride break the WNBA record with 10 threes, right? I'm just saying, this season, it's crazy. Now, the biggest X mark, the biggest question mark I have, will John Quell Jones dominate Natasha Howard? Because let's get it straight. Tosh ain't no slouch, right? Tosh has been a D-poy. She's been one of the better players in the WNBA, especially as of recently, right? She went to the WNBA All-Star game this season. She was a WNBA All-Star starter. That's no easy task just to simply dominate John Quell. I mean for John Quell Jones to simply dominate Natasha Howard. Can she do it though? Yes. John Queel Jones has a lot, has a lot of skill. In that same All-Star game I was talking about, John Queel Jones was MVP of the game. You know what I'm saying? She's been the league MVP before. Like she has a lot of talent. So if that can come out, then you may have to expect the Liberty to pull the upset. And I say upset in quotes because this Liberty team is really deeper and better than what their record has shown. But I may go links, ladies and gentlemen, for the for this series, because the Liberties defense might not be enough. And again, the Lynx, they have enough defense and offense to get the job done. They've been wire-to-wire number one this entire season. They've outplayed most folks' expectations. I've had them as a contender before the season even started. So I'm not going to be surprised. The only thing I'm surprised about is that the fact that we have two contenders, by my estimation, going off round one. I hate it. It sucks. But again, I'm going links right now. Can the Liberty win? Yes. I'm expecting links based on what I've seen thus far this season. Plus, the Liberty, they are without Satu Sabali. That is a big loss. It is what it is. But again, ladies and gentlemen, if y'all have a differing opinion, I want to hear your thoughts. Did I miss anything? Let me know. But we're going to slide on down to two versus seven.

Valkyries vs Wings Prediction

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Which is the Valkyries versus the Wings. Now, ladies and gentlemen, I'm looking at Gabby Williams versus Paige Beckers, right? The reason why, because these are the these are the two best players on their teams. Okay? Similarly to how I did with the with the Liberty and Lynx, right? So Gabby Williams versus Paige Beckers. They haven't played in the playoffs before because this is Paige's first appearance in the playoffs. So in the regular season, Gabby has gotten the better of Paige Beckers. Paige has been known for her efficiency, but when she goes up against Gabby, they be on that A. Now, Gabby's averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 0.5 blocks on 43% from the field, 41% from the three-point line, 83% from the free throw. Paige at 16, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 44% from the field, 32% from the three-point line, 86 from the free throw line. Paige is known to be closer to a 50, 40, 90 caliber player. So the fact that we're here with 44 and 32, that just shows how much of a difference it is when she goes up against Gabby and them. Now keep in mind, again, I told y'all this is Paige's first playoff appearance in the WNBA. How does she perform? I gotta be looking at that for sure. Gotta be looking at that. That's gonna be one of my focuses, ladies and gentlemen. But also, this is gonna be a Gabby Williams top five campaign getting out of this first round. Because there's a world where we can say, all right, we got Asia Wilson, we got Brandon Stewart, we got Nafisa Collier, we got Jackie Young. Who that fifth spot? Could we give it to Alyssa Thomas or has she aged out now? Could it be Gabby Williams? Could it be Kelsey Mitchell? This is your time to make a campaign for yourself as that top five player. Because who knows, if y'all go up against the Aces and win, we might even start talking about you edging out Jackie Young. Just saying. But again, ladies and gentlemen, we have a lot riding on this. Now the matchups are as follows: Veronica Burton versus Arika Agumuwale, Paige Beckers versus Gabby Williams, Maddie Seagre's versus Kayla Thornton, Jessica Shepard versus Cecilia Zandelecki, and then Awak Kouyer versus Kia Stokes. Those would be some good ones. I'm telling y'all that right now. Now, the Wings did win against the Valkyries this season in the regular season 3-0. I mean they won all three of their matches, which is kind of crazy. Now, Gabby versus Paige, I told y'all this, right? This is an elite two-way player who could be a top five player in the league versus the top bucket getter in the fourth quarter. Paige Beckers has scored the most points in the fourth quarter in this WNBA season. So offense versus clutch, a clutch offense versus clutch defense. Who's gonna win it out? Because Gabby's in the running for depoy, just to be clear. Now she didn't win my vote per se, but she defin she definitely made a strong case for herself this season. It was tough for me to go against her, if I'm being honest. Now the Valkyrie's defense versus the Wings' offense, that's what I'm focusing on. Because the Wings have had a couple of comebacks. They are the comeback kids in the WNBA this season, ladies and gentlemen. So can the Valkyrie sometimes have enough defense? Yes. A lot of the time, actually. How about their offense? That one I'm gonna be questioning. Because I think they look, they got enough offense. Are they gonna be consistent enough? That's what I'm looking to see. Also, will Alana Smith return from injury? And if not, what will be her impact? Because remember, Alana Smith just last season, 2025, was co-depoy. So it's got to factor in. Now, here's something that everybody is probably not gonna be talking about. Can a request get into groove versus Veronica Burton? Because Veronica Burton is, in fact, one of the better guards in the WNBA. When we're talking about Paige Beckers, Olivia Miles, Chelsea Gray, Sabrina, Sabrina Ianescu, you have to mention Veronica Burton because all those players I just talked about can play both good offense and good defense. You can mention someone like a Caitlin Clark, good player for sure. But even a Veronica Burton can be talked about as higher than Caitlin Clark because again, Veronica Burton plays on both sides of the floor a lot more than Caitlin Clark. And this is not a diss. This is the highlight Veronica Burton. Veronica Burton has been slept on very much so. Now, Arique, by my estimation for the last two seasons now, if I'm the wings, I'm considering or not if we should look to flip a re K because we already got Paige, we got AZ. Maybe we need another forward, maybe even possibly a playmaking forward to help out with Page. Jessica Shepard already does a little bit too, so maybe you just need to score. So maybe you just need a score. But ladies and gentlemen, if Arique can't get over the hump against Veronica Burton, who is a good defender, it's gonna be tough for this wings team. And then also is Jessica Shepherd getting slowed down by Kia Stokes because he has Stokes was what, getting about two blocks a game this season? Like Kia Stokes is a pretty good defender. And on this team, too, she fits exceptionally well. So it's up to Jessica Shepard to now make Kia Stokes come out and have to guard her and allow her teammates to be able to attack the basket a little bit more with ease. If they can do that, it's gonna be an interesting one. But ladies and gentlemen, I do favor the links in this series, even though the wings won 3-0. Possessions get a little bit more tight, right? Defense matters in the playoffs. Possessions get a little scarce, you know what I'm saying? It's not all fast pace, even though the wings aren't fast paced like the fever are. They still got a little pace to them. I like the Valkyrie winning this matchup. They fit well. I got Veronica Burton winning her matchup. I got Gabby Williams winning her matchup at best. A push. Kayla Thornton, I expect her to win over Maddie Seagrees. Jessica Shepard, you should win. Awak Kouye could make the difference. If Awak is outplaying Kia Stokes, which is possible, then I may have to revisit my prediction. But for right now, I'm going Valkyrie's over wings. Now, let's speed on down, ladies and gentlemen.

Aces vs Fever Prediction

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To the Aces versus the Fever. This is three versus six, ladies and gentlemen. Primary matchup is Asia Wilson versus Kelsey Mitchell. And it's crazy because these two are never going to go up against one another ever. Like, if you ever see Kelsey Mitchell on Asia Wilson, there's gonna be a double team immediately. And if you ever see Asia Wilson on Kelsey Mitchell, I'm actually curious how that goes because Asia can move for poppies. But again, Kelsey Mitchell is extremely quick, so that could be an ankle breaker, too. We gotta see. But this is the number one versus number two score in the WNBA. 26 points for Asia Wilson, 25 points for Kelsey Mitchell. This is also the number one and number two MVP votes for MVP in the WNBA by me. Okay? Now to be clear, both Kelsey and Angel, I'm in Asia, I'm expecting to score well. Hell, Kelsey only scored 15 points or below three times this season. Asia did the exact same thing two times this season. And then for under 20 points, both 20 points or yeah, under 20 points, meaning 19 or below, they both did it nine times this season out of 44 games. That's just telling you right there, they're typically gonna give you 20 plus points. And we've seen more than 20, by the way. Like again, they averaged 26 and 25. So, ladies and gentlemen, when we're talking about the matchups, we got Chelsea Gray versus Caitlin Clark. We got Jackie Young versus Kelsey Mitchell, we got Stephanie Talbot versus Lexi Hole, Brianna Turner versus Michaela Timpson, and Asia Wilson versus Aaliy Balston. I'm loving this matchup between Chelsea Gray and Caitlin Clark because, ladies and gentlemen, for starters, this matchup is the 2025 second-round matchup where the Aces won 3-2. Now, that matchup did not encompass Caitlin Clark. So I'm gonna wait to see just how stellar that point guard matchup goes. Now, over the regular season, the Fever actually won this series 2-1. Asia and Kelsey scoring impact. I told you guys. That's gonna be key. But this PG battle, it can speak a lot of things. Like the team USA roster starter spot, right? Some people might have thought that Caitlin should have started. I personally thought that Chelsea should have started and closed. You know what I mean? Now, we also got seasoned versus youth. Remember, Chelsea Gray is a finals MVP. But a lot of people expect Caitlin Clark to be the MVP for whatever reason. A lot of her stands feel that way. So the perception by some of these fans and stands is gonna weigh in too. Because let's say if the fever do win, oh, you best believe a lot of people are gonna be hyping up Caitlin Clark and them. And you best believe that a lot more notoriety, a lot more fame is gonna come that way with a lot more expectations, too. But another battle that we gotta focus on is Asia versus Aaliyah Boston. Because if Asia gets contained by Aaliyah, we might be in a different era. Now, the fever's defense has been something that we had to talk about. But I'm telling you right now, the fever do have something to throw at this ACE squad. Again, Aaliyah Boston, it's a risky move because if Aaliyah Boston starts getting into foul trouble, damn, that's gonna be tough. I like Michaela Timpson, and she could potentially even guard someone like a Jackie Young. But because of hype purposes, maybe she needs to guard Breonna Turner. Or even sometime Asia Wilson. But I like the Fever having Michaela Timpson as their X Factor. But also speaking of X Factor, the Aces have some of their own. Jewel Lloyd, Dana Evans. If they snap, oh, this is gonna be a quality series. And I haven't even mentioned Jackie Young having to guard Kelsey Mitchell. Like both teams are gonna have to put someone quality on their top scores. Again, Asia Wilson, Aliyah Balston, Kelsey Mitchell, Jackie Young. Those are gonna be some top quality matchups. And I can't wait to see the impact from a point guard perspective, the floor general perspective between Chelsea Gray and Caitlin Clark. That's gonna be wonderful to see. But ladies and gentlemen, I expect the Aces to win this matchup. I get it. The Fever have a little redemption on their shoulder, but they got a chip on their shoulder, especially because they lost 3-2. They won in the regular season. Things are gonna be a little bit different. You're gonna get a little bit different from the Aces. Not to mention the Aces do have a lot more size now. I get it. The Fever brought in some size too with Mercedes Russell. Heard you. I'm still leading the Aces in this matchup personally. But if y'all differ, let me know your reasons why. But we're gonna slide on down, ladies and gentlemen, to the next matchup, which is the Dream versus the Mystics.

Dream vs Mystics Prediction

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Four vs 5. Now, I'm paying attention to Shakira Alston and Angel Reese. Reason why? Because these are my depoy candidates. They're excellent rebounders. And I'm curious who wins this matchup. Because they might end up actually matching up against one another. Let's go over my matchup, shall we? George Elmore versus Jordan Canada. Sonia Citron versus Ryan Howard. Michaela Anuare versus Alicia Gray. Kiki Eri Effen versus Nas Hillman. And Shakira Alston versus Angel Reese. Now, my focuses are this. One, these are two of the more yeah, these are two of the more inconsistent teams in the WNBA. Both went on a five-game losing streak around the same time. Both went on a five-game winning streak at the same time. Five plus win streak at the same time. Now, the dream, when they matched up this regular season, they did win the seasons, the season series two to one. Okay. Angel versus Shakira, post-battle winner. That's what I'm focusing on. But I'm also looking at can Sonia Citron get the better of Ryan Howard? Now, right now, point in time, I think Ryan Howard's a better player than Sonia Citron. We're talking about later on in the future. That's going to be an interesting one because Sonya is both a two-way elite player, just like Ryan is. Now, Ryan is a little bit more trigger-happy when it comes to that three-ball. She's a better three-point shooter than Sonya is. She might even be a better scorer than Sonya is. Who's a better defender? That can be up in the air for discussion. You could lean Ryan if you want to say Sonya, I hear it too. But at minimum, I lean Ryan, especially because she is the older player. She's physically more mature. I expect her to get the better of her. If Sonya does win out, that's a little interesting to note. Now, I'm also paying attention to whether or not Jordan Canada. Can she dominate Georgia O'More? We've been talking about the point guard spot this entire season, but even before the season started, the point guard spot for the Washington Mystics could be a little shaky. This is Georgia O'More's technically her second season, but realistically her first because last year she missed it with an injury. Jordan Canada, she has studied under a player like Subert. She has a lot of cachet in the WNBA. She's one of the better point guards in the WNBA. Can she get the better of Georgia Moore, especially early on in this career in her career? I'm expecting her to do so. If she doesn't, I'm going to be a little disappointed. And I get it, this is a professional play. Both of them are. But it's levels to this. And right now, Jordan's at a different level, should be than Georgia Moore. Now, we got Sonia Sitron. We've talked about Georgia Moore. Michaela Anuwari is going to have a wonderful matchup against Alicia Gray. If she can do her thing against Alicia offensively and defensively, I think this does give the Mystics a chance to win out now. Because their size on the team is going to be helpful. But here's where I'm looking at this. Nas Hillman is going to play a key factor, ladies and gentlemen. Because Kiki Erieff and can hoop. Now, I think Shakira Olsen is their best player, arguably. Her and Sonya are their best players. If Kiki is also snapping, Kiki, do you love me? Are you riding for your team? Shout out, Drake. If so, I'm expecting you to outduel Nas. However, don't sleep on Nas Hillman because Nas Hillman is actually a fine player, ladies and gentlemen. She's about 6'6'2. She can move them puppies, very versatile on defense. I like her. But more importantly, she can score. So it's not like you can just leave her open. So again, ladies and gentlemen, if Nas plays well, we got something to talk about. If she don't, and Kiki can get off, well, Dream might, Dream might lose. And also, they still have they still have Dwana Bonner, the dream dude. So let's say if Diwanna needs to come out and play, she can come out and play. And she can stretch the floor, she can hit you on defense, she can do a lot of things. She's very versatile. They just bet man. And imagine if Brianna Jones plays. If she were back. You know what I'm saying? Like this dream team is pretty scary. Like the dream could not be, they might not be dreaming about winning a championship this season. It's realistic. I gotta say that. They're a contender for me. But again, ladies and gentlemen, I do pick the dream to win this matchup over the Mystics. The Mystics are the youngest team in WNBA history. I think this is gonna be the challenge that they need. I don't know about a suite, but I I I am expecting this to go the dream's favor, personally. But again, I told you, they're both kind of unstable, right? Incistent. So anything can happen to

Round One Picks And Round Two Look

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that one. But y'all heard my first round picks, ladies and gentlemen. I expect the Lynx, the Valkyrie, the Aces, and the Dream to all make it out of the first round. But I'm curious what do y'all think is gonna happen? Because that would make the second round the Lynx versus the Dream and then the Valkyries versus the Aces. I do kind of like that. You know what? I'ma wait to see what happens. And then when the second round happens, we're gonna talk about it. But y'all again, y'all heard my first round picks, y'all heard my second round expectations. I'm curious to y'all thoughts, ladies and gentlemen. Do y'all think I butchered up any of these matchups? Whether it's talking about teams or whether it's talking about individual players. Of course, the bench matters too, ladies and gentlemen. Everybody's bench matters. But in the playoffs, rotations get a little tighter. So I'm not expecting to see a bunch of people off the bench playing. But let's wait to

Final Thoughts And Subscribe Reminder

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see. But like I said, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, please make sure that, because this is the end of the show. So please make sure that you like, subscribe, comment, tell anyone who's anyone one about the WNBA and this playoffs coming up September 27th, and two about my show. My name is Trey. I'm the host of Good A Bucket. I hope you are all having a good one. Take care.