The One-Shot Free Throw Revolution

We break down the NBA’s proposed one-shot free throw rule and why it could change how the sport feels, how teams strategize, and how players get valued. We also dig into the unintended consequences for stats, legacy debates, and whether the WNBA, college, and other levels could follow next. 
• What the one-shot free throw rule is and why the NBA is testing it 
• Faster game flow from fewer stoppages and less rest at the line 
• Higher pressure on every attempt and bigger swings on one miss 
• Increased value for elite free throw shooters in closing minutes 
• New incentives for defenses to target weak shooters 
• Confusion around comparing free throw percentages across eras 
• Ripple effects for fantasy basketball, analysis, and player evaluation 
• Whether the rule could spread to the WNBA, college, and high school 
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Transcript

Welcome And The One-Shot Rule

SPEAKER_00 0:00

What's up everybody? It's your favorite show's favorite show Get a Bucket. I'm your host, Trey and as usual. Hope you're all having a wonderful, wonderful day. Today we're gonna talk about the one shot rule that may change the WNBA and NBA. But before we do that, please make sure to hit that like and subscribe button. Comment tell anyone who's anyone about the show. Try and get the ratings up a little bit, you know, just a little bit. And if you wonder where you heard this before, that's because you've been listening with me Monday through 11, Monday through Friday at 11 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. So I greatly appreciate your support. Now, you might be wondering what's the one-shot rule, right? Long story short, ladies and gentlemen, the NBA, and we'll talk about the WM because the NBA is the one that's looking to do this first, if I'm not mistaken. But they're trying to change the free throw layout, right? You know, normally you get, if you get fouled in the like on a mid-range or a layup, right? Anywhere where it gets two points, you usually get two free throws. If you get fouled at the three-point line or beyond, that's usually three free throws if you're in the act of shooting, okay? If you get an and one, meaning you make the bucket, then you only get one shot, right? Called an and one, hence the name. Now, yeah, now is just one free throw for all. Like if you get fouled for a two, you get one free throw. If you get fouled for a three, you get one free throw.

Faster Pace And Less Rest

SPEAKER_00 1:20

And ones, I'm assuming, gotta be the same. Because again, it's the and one. But that's what we're doing. Looking to change the rule. The NBA announced for the 2026 Summer League that they're doing this. And the to be clear, the G League actually started this in 2020, the season, 2019-2020 season. So when I say 2020, I'm talking about that season, the season where it ends, okay, to be clear. And they did it because people kept complaining about the flow of the game. Oh, well, the flow is too bad. Oh, there's too many interactions, there's too many pauses and hiatuses, boo. Okay, well, now we got a new rule. And I ain't gonna lie to you, I'm kind of interested by it. Kind of interested by it. Off top, what is it doing for the game of basketball? I'm talking about professionally, right? Because imagine also if this applied to everything high school basketball, even Special Olympics, right? Like that would be pretty interesting. I think the biggest thing this adjusts is the speed of the game. Like sometimes players can get a little breath, right? A little rest at the free throw line. Now, if you only got one, you know, you got 10 seconds to shoot the ball in in the NBA. I believe in high, really all forms of basketball, you got 10 seconds to shoot that thing. Maybe not Special Olympics. You know, it's case by case, but still, usually you got 10 seconds to shoot a free throw, okay? So usually get about 20 seconds rest, plus the ref got to get the ball, subs coming in. It's a decent amount of time to get a break. Now, if you're only shooting one free throw, and that one free throw, everybody got to battle out for the rebound, right? If you miss, well, you still gotta exert energy, so you're not really getting that much of a break. So the speed of the game is gonna start increasing. Also, again, less rest time means we get to see more action as fans faster. So that's gonna be potentially interesting to note. Also, you know, commercials, you can sneak more commercials in there, which means more money for NBA businesses, reviews, timeouts. Those are gonna be the same. You can't really change those, but so much. But a free throw? Alright, that's cool. How about two

Who Benefits On Offense

SPEAKER_00 3:41

NBA defenses? Because now, as an NBA defender, right, they've been trying to help the offense. The NBA, when I say they, that's what I'm talking about. Um, they've been trying to help the offense so much. So, what if you are fouling? Like, let's say, for example, Mitchell Robinson gets fouled and he's not a good free throw shooter at all. Now, instead of getting two tries to make it, not to mention, you get to practice your form during the game, by the way. So maybe after those two free throws miss, maybe you start making some shots. You only get one. Yeah, it's a little tough to call that a practice shot. It is still a practice shot, don't get me wrong, but two is much better than one, trust me. Like, imagine if you put Shaq or Ben Wallace at the free throw line, ladies and gentlemen. Yeah, that's probably gonna be a little bad. And I'm not throwing shade at them, I'm just saying they were under 50% free throw shooters for sure. So if I'm already under 50% and I get two chances, imagine what it might be if you get one. That's gonna be ridiculous. Also, this puts more value on good free throw shooters. Like, you gotta be a good free throw shooter, ladies and gentlemen. You have to. And if you're elite, too, I think we're gonna start talking about higher contracts. Because again, in specific situations, you're on the floor and you get fouled and you're knocking down that free throw shot. Steph Curry, KD, Damian Lillard, Jalen Brunson, these skilled players, these players who are really good at the skilled aspect of the NBA, your value goes up as well, too. Now that's the offensive side of it. It's gonna be on the business piece. Because contracts, you're gonna see, oh, this guy shoots 90% from the free throw line. We gotta keep him. Got to.

New Defensive Targeting Strategy

SPEAKER_00 5:30

On the flip side, defenses. Now I'm targeting somebody who's not a good free throw shooter because all I need is for you to miss one. And there's a lot of pressure on making that one shot. Especially if it's like a three-pointer and y'all are down three or down two. As long as it's not an and one. That's the only thing. So I will say, this does seem interesting. Now, the one thing that's gonna be interesting to watch is from like an athlete standpoint, right? How do we base like how do we compare free throw percentages now? Whether we're talking about players of today, hello, even some of the players in their past, like when we're thinking about it, right? The rookies, if if let's say the season was implementing it today, right? For this season, the NBA was implementing the season. Is it fair now to like compare NBA players' free throws 2026 season to 2025? Because again, you get more opportunities. Like on the flip side, right? Like, let's say you only get one and you're making all of these. Does this mean that you're like a 100% free throw shooter? No, it just means you're hitting all of these. But if you were to get two options or three of you might miss some. But then let's let's

Stats Comparisons And Legacy Debates

SPEAKER_00 6:55

reverse that, right? What happens if somebody shoots worse, like let's let's say they're shooting 50%, meaning they make one miss one, make one miss one, make one, miss one, but they keep getting to the free throw line. Is that a terrible free throw shooter like Shaq? It's a little bit different, because again, their value is much is a little better now. I ain't gonna hold you. Especially if you factoring in threes as well, too. Because Shaq definitely won't do one of those. But now I'm very curious how are we gonna start judging free throws? And also, to be clear, free throws were one of the main baselines for me when we talk about comparing people from old eras to new. Now we're changing that. That's a little scary. It makes me start to think, dang, what else can we start changing? In the NBA statistically, I'm talking about the old school stats: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, percentages. Those matter. So I'm very curious how this is gonna ultimately impact the athletes and the discussions that we have about these athletes. So, ladies and gentlemen, overall, how do I like this? Because it's not even just the athletes. We can talk about it from a fantasy basketball perspective. How do those now get tracked? Again, the analyst world, it's gonna be interesting. But I'm interested in wondering what you all think about this. Because again, this doesn't just impact the NBA. Because if it goes well in summer league, it's already been doing okay in the G League, I gotta assume, because they're bringing it out from the G League. And it's been around for six seasons. So if that's what we're doing and bringing it to the NBA, what's the chance of it happening in college and the WNBA and high school basketball? Hell, they might even try to go to Special Olympics. Like, what's the impact that this is going to have? The landscape of basketball appeared to already be changing, but now it's changing even more. And while on one hand, I appreciate it, on the other hand, I'm

Ripple Effects Across Every Level

SPEAKER_00 8:55

a little scared. So that's where I gotta lean with y'all, lean to y'all, ladies and gentlemen. Where do you what do you believe in this? Because again, like I said, it impacts so many different aspects of basketball. Do you like this? Do you not like this? And again, currently, if you get fouled and it's a three-pointer, you get three free throws. If you get fouled and it's a two-pointer, you get two. Only time you get one is if you make the bucket on on the foul. And we're and we're talking about in the act of shooting. So do you prefer that old school method? Or would you rather have one shot? Do not miss your chance to blow. Because the opportunity comes. What's in the lifetime? You better lose yourself in the music. Sorry about that. I'm an inventive fan. But like seriously, which one would y'all rather have? I'm curious what your thoughts. And what's some of the pros and cons that you're thinking about? Did I miss some? Let me know. But, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, that does conclude the end of the episode. So, like I said, comment your thoughts. But thank you all for listening. My name is Trey. I'm the host of Get a Bucket. Please make sure to like, subscribe, comment, tell anyone who's anyone about the show. Hope you all are having a good one. Take care.