Why The Lakers Third Seed Feels Fragile

We’re not buying the Lakers’ shiny seed because the West has context, and our roster flaws show up fast when you look past the standings. With Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves hurt, we map out the matchup math and ask who’s actually built to survive a brutal NBA playoff run. 
• Why the Lakers’ three seed feels shaky 
• How injuries across the West shape the standings 
• Austin Reaves’ production and free throw questions 
• Point differential as a contender test 
• Why the Timberwolves feel like the best matchup 
• Why we don’t want the Nuggets or Rockets 
• East vs West for playoff entertainment 
• Our picks and wild cards across both conferences 
• The case for a 1 through 16 playoff format 
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Transcript

Lakers Season Doubts

SPEAKER_00 0:00

What's up, everybody? It's your favorite show's favorite show get a bucket. I'm your host, Trey, as usual. Hope you're all having a wonderful, wonderful day. I'm kind of not. Hear me out, right? As an NBA fan, Laker fan specifically, I'm not really impressed with our season right now. Like, yeah, sure, we're third. All right, I hear you. But that required a little bit of a slippage from the Rockets internally. The Nuggets were a little were a little unhealthy. The Wolves were a little unhealthy. The Suns, they've been unhealthy. The Clippers, they've been through a massive change. The Trailblazers, I'm surprised their asses is here. And the Warriors have been unhealthy for a large part of the season. So like we're kind of supposed to be third in the West. And and and we might be able to say there's some surprises above us. Like the Spurs, I don't want to call them a surprise. I thought they've been a decent team. I didn't think number two, but again, I, you know, decent team nonetheless. So I'm not completely surprised. The Thunder, they've literally been here before. Like the defending champions, they've literally been here before. So I I hear that. I hear these two. I think we're going to end up slipping, ladies and gentlemen. Because we already lost Luca, and then we already lost Austin Reeves. Now, I'm not acting like Austin Reeves is this grandiose player, this overly impactful player, because again, when we talk about getting to the playoffs, he's had a decent regular season. I'll give him that. But he's still a role player to me. Okay? Like he's still a role player to me. The Lakers still need impact players a little bit better than what Austin Reeves has done. We could talk about the 25 points a game. We could talk about him being able to get to the free throw line. I think some of that is just because the Lakers jersey itself, a little bit of a foul baiter. Not the same way, not at the same level of a gripe that people should have with SGA. But to be clear, SGA is a much better player than Austin Reeves. So the fact that I'm able to see Austin Reeves that high on the free throw list in terms of attempts, like he's usually getting about seven to nine free throws a game. That's ridiculous. Because if we take those out, he's back at that 15 to 20 points per game, and he's playing alongside Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Put him on another team, it may be a little bit different. So again, ladies and gentlemen, as Lakers, about to consider this season a wash. I didn't expect us to win it anyways, to be clear. Our perimeter defense isn't the best. DeAndre Aiton's okay, but it would be nice if we had a better anchor defensively. Braun might have to leave, especially if he's taking up$53 million. We need to see a little bit more, especially when we're looking at OKC, who is a complete team top-down. Spurs, who look to be a complete team top-down, they're just missing the experience. Nuggets look to be a complete team top down, and they have the experience. They've just been unhealthy. The Rockets, they have the they have what they need from top-down, just minus maybe a Fred Van Fleet, but they can still get the job done even without Fred Van Fleet just because of their interior rebounding. Like everybody has something over us, ladies and gentlemen. And I can't say Luca's all we need, or oh yeah, you got Luca and Braun, you should get the job done. Because to be clear, when they both on the floor, the the point differential ain't that ain't that stellar. Hell, even our point differential right now is only a 1.5. That's at the same level of a Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Clippers. Now, other teams, they're around 4.8 plus, which that's pretty solid in basketball today. With OKC being 11.7 point differential, meaning they score 11.7 more points than their opponents on average. That's not bad. Now, the fact that we as a three-seed have a 1.5 difference, which the fourth, fifth, and sixth seed having a better point differential, that kind of speaks volumes to me. Again, I think we should expect us to drop, especially with Luca and Austin Reeves out. Now, the schedule I thought was manageable. We had about five games remaining. And I ain't gonna hold y'all, ladies and gentlemen. I thought we could have gone four and one in that in the in that in that stretch to secure the three-seed, right? I think at 12 games behind a piece from number one, that's us, the Rockets, and the Nuggets. So apparently we got the tiebreaker. I don't see us, again, we were five games away from the season ending when I said we would go potentially four and one to keep the third seed. Hell, we might need it, honestly, because home court advantage, it it does play a factor in playoffs, and we need every bit of an advantage that we can get. But I've also been saying for the last couple weeks, so maybe even a month at this point in time, actually, probably even longer than that, four teams, like teams in the West, I don't want to see the Thunder, the Spurs, the Nuggets, and the Rockets. I would rather see the Timberwolves right now, even though they beat us just last season, because the Timberwolves are also dealing with injuries to their star players. We got Jaden McDaniels out. He's looking about what, maybe week to week. Anthony Edwards is probably day to day by the time the playoffs roll around. And again, we need to have the easiest possible matchup that there is. So is there a world where LeBron James could potentially beat the Minnesota Timberwolves? There's a world. I don't see him beating the Rockets. I don't see him beating the Nuggets. And I say LeBron James because again, Luka Doncic is possibly coming back in the second round. He could come back early on, maybe. But he has a left hamstring issue, which I don't know if y'all have been paying attention to basketball, but you kind of need your hamstring. You need the hammy for sure. Now, other players have had hamstring injuries and have not been able to return back, like Jalen Williams off OKC. He's been out basically the whole season with a hamstring injury, if I'm not mistaken. So obviously, it might take Luca out of the game. Now, the best thing about it is Luca's not an above-the-rim player, so maybe he can come back, but he's still going to be hampered. And then Austin Reeves, well, he's out with a grade two oblique strain. And that's keeping him out at least four to six weeks. And I don't know if y'all realize this or not, but the final game of the regular season is April 12th. Playoff starts April 18th. Yeah, we kind of need some time on our hands, ladies and gentlemen. So again, I think the best matchup for us would be the Wolves because they're hampered. They're injured. Could Ayton get the best of a Rudy Gobert? I'm I I think that's possible. I don't know how much money I want to bank on it, but again, the ability is there. Could Julius Randle falter a little bit? It's possible. We've seen Julius not play the best in the playoffs. But again, ladies and gentlemen, that's the best case scenario for us. So if we slip, which right now we're slated to battle against the Timberwolves, because OKC gets the lower seed of the play-in teams, then the Spurs, and then after that, we get the Timberwolves with the Nuggets facing against the Rockets. I we don't need to see the Nuggets or the Rockets at all in the playoffs, ladies and gentlemen. The Nuggets are on a nice little tear right now. They're gaining momentum. I think the Rockets will be just fine, come playoffs, and that's going to be an interesting matchup between the Nuggets and the Rockets. But both teams, to be clear, can beat us. Even though we just beat the Rockets back-to-back games, playoffs is different than regular season. And again, we don't have the same players that we did. We're missing Austin Reids, we're missing Luka Doncic. So, ladies and gentlemen, this Western Conference, the East might be a little bit more open, honestly. Because we we we understand as long as Cade comes back, it's probably going to be between the Pistons and the Celtics. I don't believe in the Knicks. Could they get there? Sure. But I don't believe in them. I don't believe in the Cavs. More specifically, I don't believe in Donovan Mitchell or James Harden. They faltered too many times. The Hawks are an interesting squad because they actually could make a nice little run for the top of the West. And when I say a run for the top of the West, I'm specifically meaning they have the talent to be able to beat anybody in the East. And I can say the same thing for a healthy Philadelphia 76ers squad. If Joel MB comes back striking along with Paul George, who has been snapping since he came back, fresh legs, fresh mindset, you got something to prove. I think that's that that's that's something to note. And then we also got to look at a team like the Hornets, who have been an up-and-coming team for sure. If they can get into the playoffs, I'm curious what they do. But we know what the East is going to be about. The West, well, are the Thunder able to make a return? Can the Spurs eclipse that experience or lack thereof that they have and get to the finals? That'll be interesting. Can the Nuggets get back to the title? Can Kevin Durant get back to the title or Imei Udoka get back to the title? That'll be curious. Can the Minnesota Timberwolves heal up enough to get there? Or will my Lakers surprise a lot of people and get there? Like, there's a lot of things that we could talk about, but I don't think the Lakers should be mentioned before the Thunder or the Spurs or the Nuggets or the Rockets right now. I genuinely don't. And again, we're the three-seed. Ask us after two days from now or two games from now, hey, we could be the five seed. So again, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, I'm looking at my team. And I'm not feeling comfortable. And I already won't feel uncomfortable. So I'm very curious. One, which conference do y'all think is better right now, the East or the West? Talking about for playoff entertainment. I think the West is a little bit stronger than the East. But again, ask me next season. We may have some conversations to talk about. Because I will like the Pistons, I will like the Celtics, I will like the Hawks, I will like the Hornets. And then on the West, I mean, obviously the Thunder and the Spurs, the Nuggets, and we'll see what happens after that. Because I think the Rockets are still there. They get Fred Van Fleet back. My Lakers, I gotta see what we do. Braun probably won't be back. Hopefully, we don't give Austin Reeves an arm and a leg for his contract. If so, then I'm jumping ship off my Lakers altogether. Because that's money that we could spend elsewhere on a better player. But again, that's something to note as well, too. The Wolves, do they keep their roster as is? Do they maybe try to make a splash or someone? I still want to see the Anthony Edwards, Scotty Barnes pairing. I really truly do. I think that could be a wonderful duo. But at least for the next couple seasons, meaning two, I could see Thunder, Spurs, and Nuggets still at the top of the ranks. So again, ladies and gentlemen, I'm curious which conference do y'all deem as the better conference? Which one is the more entertaining conference? And then who do you guys expect to come out this season? Will it be for the West, the Thunder, the Spurs, my Lakers? I don't think so. The Nuggets, the Rockets, the Wolves. Will the Suns surprise us? Will the Clippers surprise us? I don't know. I'd really be surprised if Portland Trailblazers win it. And then Golden State Warriors. They would have been interesting because there was actually a rumor that they tried to get Kawhi Leonard. So if they had gotten Kawhi Leonard had and Christos Porzingis with Steph Curry, that might have been something. I'm not going to lie to y'all, ladies and gentlemen. That might have been something. And depending on how how healthy Jeremy Butler returns, that'll be interesting too. Although the timeline is kind of tough because he's getting a little older as well, too. But you know, and that's a little bit tough. But who do y'all have coming out the West? And then the East, I mean, who you got favorite? Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Cavs, Hawks, 76ers. Can Raptors make some noise? The Hornets been looking pretty good. Can the Magic do something? And what about the Heat? Because Eric Spocher ain't no slouch, and Pat Riley always figures out something at some point in time. So I'm very curious how this playoff is going to go. But ladies and gentlemen, as a Lakers fan, I'm not expecting us to get out of the first round, if I'm being honest with you. Our best chance of getting out of the first round is somehow eclipsing San Antonio for that second spot. And to be clear, we're like nine games behind them with four games left. So that's impossible, to be clear. We can't get higher than a three seed. And if we get to the sixth seed, all that means is we play the Nuggets, which, as history has shown us, we know how that goes. And you could say, well, what about if we play against the Rockets? We beat them twice in a row. I hear that. Again, we don't have the same talent that we do, and the Rockets are probably going to be a little hungry because now it's playoffs. And we're not going to be able to stop Kevin Durant. I've heard people try to say, oh, Katie doesn't, Katie doesn't know how to defend the double, or doesn't know how to go up against the double team. That is ignorant to make because he's been double teamed pretty much the large part of his career. So I think Ime Udoko will figure some things out in terms of how to get his team overall working against the double team because you got to empower your team a little bit. Personally, I think Amin Thompson should get a bigger role as their point guard, but that's just me, but that's another discussion for another day. Ladies and gentlemen, this Western Conference playoff, the playoffs in general should be smooth. But the Western Conference playoffs is about to be spectacular. I still want to see one through 16 playoff format, personally. Maybe that gives us a better chance, a better chance of getting to the second round. Who knows? But I'm curious, ladies and gentlemen, who do you all have coming out of the East? Who do you all have coming out of the West? What do you all think about my Lakers? Just because I'm biased on that one. I gotta know what y'all think about my boys. But that does conclude the end of the episode. So, ladies and gentlemen, please make sure to like, subscribe, comment, tell anyone who's anyone about the show. My name is Trey. I'm the host of Get a Bucket. I hope you are all having a good one. Take care.