2026 Men's Final Four To Final Pick Prediction

We break down the men’s March Madness Final Four with a close look at UConn vs Illinois and Michigan vs Arizona, then we preview the national championship matchup with injuries and key battles in mind. I give my title pick, explain what has to happen for each team to win, and ask you to lock in your own prediction. 
• UConn slowing Keaton Wagler enough to tilt the Illinois matchup 
• Terrace Reed Jr producing even with foul trouble 
• Michigan surviving early trouble and still controlling the Arizona game 
• Arizona’s passing problems shown by five assists and fourteen turnovers 
• Elliott Cadeau’s aggressive playmaking with high risk turnovers 
• Injury watch for Yaxel Lindenborg and Solo Ball 
• Big man battle and point guard duel as the title swing points 
• My Michigan championship prediction and the paint attack blueprint 
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Transcript

Welcome And Final Four Setup

SPEAKER_00 0:00

What's up, everybody? It's your favorite show's favorite show. Get a bucket. I'm your host, Trey, as usual. Hope you're all having a wonderful, wonderful day. Today we're going to talk about March Madness for the men's side. We're talking about the final four, ladies and gentlemen, as well as my championship predictions. So let's look forward to talking about the championship prediction. But for right now, we're going to talk about the final four. Yukon versus Illinois. My initial prediction was well, that's a jump ball. I had a jump ball only because I saw a genuine world, a universe, where Illinois could have actually won the matchup. And I also saw the same thing for Yukon. Like both teams had a legitimate fair shake, not just because one team couldn't always win. Like I genuinely thought these two teams matched up well against one another. And I had a couple of question marks coming into the matchup. Keaton Wagler versus Solo Ball and Silas DeMario Jr., those are the guards for UConn. Keaton Wagler's the guard slash star for Illinois. I was wondering, could Yukon slow them down, slow him down? Reason why I thought that was because Caden Boozer was getting off a little bit when we, Duke, went up against Yukon, even though we lost the game. But like again, Caden bouts 6'4, 6'5. He got a little height to him. Can Keaton attack the basket the way he did? And well, UConn showed me that they were able to slow down Keaton Wagler. Again, Keaton Waggler is a freshman, ladies and gentlemen, probably going to the NBA. He usually averages 18 points a game with five rebounds, four assists on 1.8 turnovers, by the way, with 0.4 blocks and 0.9 steals. In the title game, he got 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists with three turnovers, no steals, no blocks. And efficiency-wise, he usually shoots 45, 40, 80 splits. Title game, or in the final four game, he averaged 44, 20, 80 splits.

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Eh.

Michigan vs Arizona What Went Wrong

Michigan vs UConn Injury Watch

Bigs And Point Guards Decide It

Championship Pick And Keys To Win

Your Pick And Closing Callouts

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You know, so again, they did slow him down a little bit because he is the engine that drives Illinois into where they are today. So UConn did their job on that one. Also, I had to ask myself, well, can Illinois Biggs do well against Terrace Reed Jr.? Because Terrace Reed is has been playing pretty good basketball. I can't lie to you. He's been playing pretty smooth. Can they outplay their matchup? And well, Terrace, could he be guarded by the Biggs? Not quite. Not quite. Terrace did get into foul trouble, if I'm not mistaken, early on in the game, right? But he still finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds, which to be clear, his average in the in the in the season is 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 0.9 steals. So he didn't get two blocks or any steals. Okay, that's fine. That's cool. That's dandy, but he still did pretty well across the board. So I I can't say that UConn or Illinois did their job against Terrace. Although they did a good job, don't get me wrong. They just didn't slow him down enough because UConn was able to slow down Keaton just a little bit more, so, right? And I was also wondering, would this be an emotional win for UConn after how they got there, right? Like barely beating my team, or we barely we turned the however you want to classify it, man. They beat us, end of day. But would that be an emotional win that takes a lot out of UConn? Answer was nope. Even with Illinois' slight comeback at the end of the game, it didn't do much. So again, once again, congratulations, UConn. So annoying to hear. Oh my gosh. Because again, we we we we should be beating Illinois and going to the championship game. But it's it is what it is at this point in time. So now again, like I said, ladies and gentlemen, it was a closer, it was a close-ish game, only because there was a little comeback. But now we can talk about Michigan versus Arizona. My initial prediction was Michigan. I asked, would Yax will continue to be, at least look like the best player on the floor in March Madness because he's looked pretty stellar. He got into foul trouble as as early as the first two minutes in the game. Goes out. Then he eventually comes back into the game only to get injured. Only to get injured. It was a little interesting. It was a little interesting. You start to worry about Michigan. Crazy thing though. They start hooping a little bit. They start getting the bucket. Like it's kind of it's kind of it's kind of crazy. I'm not gonna lie to y'all. I also said with Michigan's rebounding and rim protection continue to dominate. Well, here's the interesting part. They didn't need that this game. Like I asked, could Arizona's offense eclipse Michigan's defense? Not quite. Yeah, Michigan was able to kind of diminish the Arizona's freshman impact because they were they though those two players on the team co-opete, and Bradenbury's are in fact the best players on their team. But the more glaring issue was the fact that their team could, Arizona meeting could not pass the ball. Like one of my like this guy I know told me that Arizona doesn't play make well. And I was like, well, buddy, to be clear, they they kind of stack up, at least statistically, along the lines of a Yukon. So I don't know, or even a Michigan. I don't know if you can say that during the season. But like this game in particular, yeah, they had five assists to 22 assists favoring Michigan. And when you have five assists and 14 turnovers as a team, you probably gonna lose in quality fashion. And I was wondering too, would Arizona's defense outlast Michigan's balance offense? No, it didn't. Michigan's balance was pretty smooth. They had double-digit players even coming off their bench, almost two, because one player had nine. So overall, Arizona lost this in good fashion. I mean, don't get me wrong. Coa played well, 16 points, 11 rebounds, six of 18. You know, 33% ain't the ain't the best. And then Braden, Braden Burries, 13 points, six rebounds. Uh six rebounds, one, one assist, one turnover, two steals. All right, you know, like normally he does a little bit better than that. I think Burden, I think, yeah, Brayden gets about 16 points, two assists. You know, he does a little bit better than what he what he displayed. But again, ladies and gentlemen, they were they those are freshmen. This is a big game. So I kind of understand the faux pas. Not to mention, too, like I said, there were some interesting things that kind of favored Michigan. Elliott Cadeau being overly aggressive early on, missing a lot of shots, by the way, but still being aggressive, making the defense keep up be honest, meaning they can't just let they can't just sag off and not guard because you're not being aggressive. He goes five of 17, ladies and gentlemen. That is less than 33%. But the fact that he was aggressive, got six turnovers, but also had 10 assists and four steals. So Elliott Cadeau was moving them puppies out there, getting the bucket and stopping people from getting the bucket, as well as getting allowing his players to get a bucket. He was doing pretty well. So, you know, there were a lot of interesting things that were going fair for Michigan. Again, your team shooting 48% from the field, 44% from the three, and 81% from the free throw line. Not one player, not even two. Your team averaged that. Y'all made 12 threes in a game. Like that's kind of crazy. Fab Five was out there giving y'all some support and analyzing the game. You gotta think maybe the script writers wrote it up kind of nicely. Because it was pretty good. Again, ladies and gentlemen, having 22 assists to Arizona's five. That speaks volumes. So, I mean, you know, congratulations, Michigan, for getting past Arizona and congratulations, Yukon, for getting past Illinois. But ladies and gentlemen, we got a couple of things that we need to talk about with this Michigan-Yukon game. Now, I like I said, the last game I the last round I said jump ball for one and Michigan would win their game. So technically, I'm 50% because I didn't technically give an answer, right? This game between Michigan and Yukon should be an interesting one. Like a very entertaining one. Because they're actually quite comparable as a team. Now, here's some things that we need to note off top. Yaxel Lindenborg's health, right? As well as Solo Ball's health. Because Solo messed up his foot and then Yaxel messed up his knee. So both, well, Yaxel's anticipated to play. Solo is game time decision right now. Hopefully they both are able to play and they both are healthy. Because that'll just add more entertainment to the game, right? But Yaxel's Michigan's best player. Solo ball might be their team's best perimeter defender, maybe, but again, Yaxel is Michigan's best player, without question. So Yaxel's impact is going to be felt more so than solo balls personally. Although offense wins you games, defense wins you championships, solo balls, perimeter defense, as that championship pedigree that hopefully Yukon is trying that Yukon's trying to get to. But again, Yaxel also defends as well, too. So again, best player kind of overshadows solo balls impact, although it's pretty stellar. Also, both players hit three threes in the final four. So clearly they can add to some spacing that both teams need, right? Now, I'm going back to what I asked in the final four. Can Terrace Reed Jr. be slowed down? Now, here's the thing, ladies and gentlemen, and this is going to be kind of one of the things that I'm looking forward to watching. We got Ade Mara and Malik Corden. Both of them are 7'2 plus in height and weigh more than at least 255 pounds. Now, Terrace Reed Jr. is 6'11, 265. The boy is strong. Okay, strong, to be to be clear. But when we got this level of height and and weight, I think it's fair to say that this is going to be a very interesting battle for Terrace Reed Jr. We're gonna we're gonna get to know a lot about Terrace Reed and how he might stack up against NBA Biggs. Now we got to ask, is Michigan's defense elite enough? Because Yukon has been playing pretty well against my Duke Blue Devils, which is what was a top-tier defense this season. Remember, they were able to come back and eventually beat us, put 73 points on us. That's that that's a good amount of points right there. Against a quality top-tier defense, ladies and gentlemen. Can their offense hold up? Because Michigan's defense, you can make the case that Michigan's defense is better than Duke's defense. So, like I said, ladies and gentlemen, when I'm looking at this Michigan versus Yukon battle, I'm looking at the big man battle between Ade Mara, 7'3, 255, that's the starter, versus Terrace Reid Jr., who's 6'11 and 265. Now, keep in mind, let's say Terrace gets a day into foul trouble. They still have Malik coming off the bench who's 7'2, 275. So Terrace is going to get some looks at his coming at his way. And they got people who are 6'9 to help out. And Terrace is 6'11, so that's a two-inch difference, which to be clear, yes, two inches in terms of height is a is a solid difference, but it's not at the same time. Especially when the the guys who are 6'9 have good athleticism, like Yaksel Lindenborg. Now, granted, you know, he's still got to be healthy. But if they need to help out, it'll be interesting to see what happens. And he still got to beat them one-on-one. Then we also got to talk about the point guard duel between Silas DeMary Jr. and I would say solo ball, but again, his health is in question. Versus Elliott Cadeau. Which team, which you gotta look at your point guards, have less turnovers. Because you guys are typically making most of the decisions. The ball should be in your hands in late game critical moments. So those two battles right there, will there be some standout players? Yes, for sure. Somebody's gonna come off the bench and do work. I ain't gonna lie to you. Somebody, I don't know who, but somebody's going to surprise us with some sort of spectacular game. Maybe one of the starters or two don't show up. It's a championship game. It's supposed to be gritty. Here's my thing: those two matchups are what I'm looking at. And to be honest with you, in a gritty game, I might favor UConn in the point guard duel and potentially in the big man duel as well, too. But we'll see though. Because I maybe I'm not giving enough credit to Michigan's big man. Maybe I'm a little biased because Elliot Cadeaux went to UNC. Maybe, I don't know. But my expectation on who's going to win the national championship, ladies and gentlemen, I have Michigan. Now that's contingent upon, and this is what they'll kind of need to do, right? Yaxel, Lindenborg being healthy, like I stated. The Biggs, they got to avoid early foul trouble. And the team has to attack the paint. Because if you can get Terrace Reid into foul trouble and off the floor, I saw what my Blue Devils was able to do with that. Now, to be clear, Yukon can come back. But that's why I say you got to keep attacking the paint. Because Michigan actually has the size to get enough rebounds and get second chance and third chance opportunities. So again, ladies and gentlemen, if I'm Michigan, you gotta attack the paint. Now, for Yukon, in order for them to win, even though again, I expect Michigan to win this championship game. Yukon can win if Terrace Reid Jr. is able to dominate their bigs. Getting both into foul trouble early, that gives you some momentum. And now that also makes UConn's, I mean Michigan's bigs, playing a little hesitant in the second half because now they don't want to get another, they don't want to get into foul trouble early, right? Then you got to have Braylon Mullins or Alex Carbana be aggressive. Both of those players have to be aggressive. Because they're looking for you guys to shoot the three-ball. So maybe you can attack the paint early on, get some lays, or maybe a dunk or two, whatever is available, whatever's good, or maybe a pull-up for a mid-range or a floater, but be aggressive regardless. Because that's going to be able to keep Michigan honest on defense. And then this is when I kind of allude, this is what I kind of allude to earlier. Somebody on y'all bench got to produce. Y'all gotta get a somebody on the bench gotta get a bucket. Defense is cool, but like if we're talking about starting five versus starting five, Michigan starting five might be at minimum comparable. And they have two players who can actually do something off the bench. So UConn's gonna actually have to showcase that they can bring somebody off the bench with something, especially if solo ball is injured. That's gonna be really critical. But ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, I'm curious. Who do you all have winning this game? Michigan or Yukon? The Wolverines or the Huskies. Which one y'all got? I'm curious to I'm curious who you all picking. But that does conclude the end of the episode, ladies and gentlemen. So I I I genuinely appreciate y'all for listening. Please make sure to like, subscribe, comment, tell anyone who's anyone about the show. My name is Trey, I'm the host, get a bucket. I hope you're all having a good one. Take care.